4th issue Article 3 Abstract

أثر الطلب العالمي من النفط على تقييم الاحتياطيات النفطية في ليبيا

The impact of the global demand for oil on the assessment of oil reserves in Libya

Abstract

 

The issue of financing investments for the oil sector in Libya is considered one of the most important challenges currently facing the national economy.
The basic question: Can accurate accounting approach that determine of the economic value of Libyan oil reserves helps in solving the dilemma of securing the necessary financing to the oil industry? The study aims to assess the value of Libyan oil reserves through an accounting methodology by building a cash flow model to extract the Net Present Value (NPV) of these reserves according to their two scenarios. The first scenario reflects a high global demand for oil that will reach its peak in 2035, according to the forecast of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries OPEC. The second scenario reflects lower global oil demand, which will reach a peak in 2025, according to BP’s forecast. Based on two models of cash flow, the first is the base scenario and the second is sensitive scenario in terms that links the expected price levels to the expected demand for oil, the Libyan oil reserves are evaluated in accounting terms for the period 2021 - 2050.
To identify the impact of the global demand for oil on the accounting evaluation of the remaining Libyan oil reserves in the future, as the study assumes that in the event of an increase in future demand for oil, this will enhance the value of the reserves, and the value of the reserves will increase as a result of the rise in price and demand in the future despite its decrease in production, and that the increase in the value of the reserves will be the main catalyst for investment in the industry, so we will need in Libya to extend the shelf life of the proven reserves by making more oil discoveries.
The accounting evaluation here revealed by the study should help in designing technical policies aimed at maximizing the benefit from the value of the oil wealth in the future and planning the phased production for it, while taking advantage of the value of the expected oil revenues in the national economy, whether in terms of the economic development of the Libyan society or providing the necessary financing for the oil industry. The model came out with the following accounting estimates: The NPV of the remaining oil reserves after the year 2050, with a total amount of $985 billion in the base scenario, compared to $505 billion estimated in the sensitive scenario, after calculating a discount rate of 8 % according to the custom followed in most of the industry. A difference of 480 billion dollars
is estimated. Based on the accounting results of the study, the National Oil Corporation can, could for example, decide adapt financing partially from outside the government budget, as some oil countries, including Saudi Arabia (Aramco) has chosen to do. NOC could offer shares in the local or international market backed by the strength of the expected cash flow in the future. Cash flow according to both scenarios allow NOC to safely obtain 9 billion dollars, which reflect the value of 3 % in the first scenario of the reserves that can be produced for a period of 10 years in the form of bonds or equity shares that can be adapted according to the strategic vision of the NOC. This, of course, will be deducted from the future government income of the state to repay the investors, but it will solve the financing dilemma in the short term without resorting to reserving additional quantities of reserves for the foreign partner, according to the type of production sharing agreements currently used in financing oil investments.

 

Keywords: global demand for oil, oil prices, global reserves of oil, Libyan oil
reserves.

 

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